Action 3 News Weather Blog

Alright, we continue to be in the teeth of this storm. Blizzard Warnings continue and the snow is coming down heavy at times. Though it will be tough to measure with the blowing and drifting, we still look good to recieve a little either side of a foot of snow in Omaha with locally higher amounts with this storm. I would not be surprised to see some 14-18 inch amounts come in with this storm as it tapers early Saturday. The heaviest snow will be around or just east of the river. Be careful if you do have to travel over the next couple of days! Needless to say it is not recommended and may be impossible at times. Be safe and have a Merry Christmas…it will certainly qualify as a white one!

Hello again and Happy Holidays…

Getting very busy here just wanted to give a quick update and let everyone know we have been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning through Saturday Morning. The weather service just updated this part of the forecast and I am not surprised with this new development. I still expect 6-12 inches of snow with locally higher amounts especially just east of the river. The strong winds will continue as well with the blowing and drifting snow. I will give you guys more info this evening. Thanks

HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!

CT updated this after the new computer information came in a while ago in very good detail. I just want to pick up from there and give you an update on how this is playing out.

There is still some uncertainty to the overall track but several things are becoming quite clear! Temperatures have dropped from a Midnight high of 34 down into the teens with NNW winds gusting to around 40mph. This has turned the precip to all snow. As far as snowfall, the gradient is going to be very tight! I still think Omaha is going to see 6-12 inches of snow with the heaviest just east of the river in Western Iowa where over a foot will fall. Several inches will fall just west of Omaha with amounts less the farther west you go. The combination of strong winds and heavy snow will create blizzard condition through tomorrow and a winter storm warning continues through this time.

Merry Christmas Eve, Everyone!

I was hoping to see more precip on the ground by this time (10 am), but so far, we’ve only had a dusting since we started seeing light snow develop on the radar between 2 and 3 am.  Radar trends are indicating the solid precipitation shield of moderate to heavy snow from southern Kansas into northern Texas, will continue to build northward as we approach the late afternoon and evening.  Therefore, I realistically see much to develop between now and let’s say 4 pm.  This current thought seems in line with the 1200 UTC RUC model.  If you have any last-minute errands or short traveling to do now and early afternoon, Mother Nature will be on your side.

I have just finished refining (for the fourth time) my snowfall forecast since the beginning of this event.  I used mainly the 1200 UTC WRF-NMM model to base my new contours.  The noticeable change, from what I had for my 5 am broadcast, was that I trimmed and moved the 12″+ contour to north of Omaha.  I think a broad 6″-12″ still looks like a very reasonable forecast, at this point in time, for much of the KMTV viewing area…preserving much of what Chief Meteorologist Ryan McPike presented last night.  Here is my current thought, as of 10 am:

The model trends have shifted the heaviest precipitation a bit farther east, but due to the 36+ hour window of potential snowfall accumulation due to the speed and track of the surface low arriving from the Southern Plains, I feel very comfortable now keeping 6 inches as the minimum forecast total for our area.  I’m not inclined to exceed 12 inches, because the total QPF has dropped a bit from previous model runs and also is dependent on how much convection thunderstorms over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys rob moisture that will wrap around the surface low that will skirt to our east.  The axis of heaviest precipitation right now is nearly parallel the I-29 corridor, which puts the Omaha metro in the heart of the 6″-12″ contour.  I feel that Omaha looks to lean closer the 12″ side of the range than the 6″ side.  Of course…any new models may require further refinements of my going forecast.  Nonetheless, this will be another significant storm for our viewing area!

I won’t likely post another update before my shift is up at 12:30 pm today.  Action 3 News Live This Morning (5-7 am) and Midday (12 pm) is not scheduled Friday, due to the Christmas holiday…so I won’t be in the office to be with family.  Therefore, it’s unlikely you’ll see a post from me for the next couple of days, because, we have families, too, that we need to spend the holiday weekend with.

In the meantime, I hope you and your family have a Merry Christmas!  Stay safe out there and at least enjoy the ambience of snow actually falling from the sky for Christmas Eve!

By the way…my official Action 3 News Facebook profile is online!  I’ll happily add you as a friend, and you’ll receive weather updates in your news feed.  Either search for “KMTV C.T. Thongklin” or click on the following link to find me: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/profile.php?id=1492954296&ref=ts

-C.T.

Hello again…

To follow up our previous posts…I just want to update everyone on the latest. We are now under a winter storm warning from Thursday morning until Saturday morning. Overnight we will continue to see spotty rain and freezing rain as temps hang around 32 degrees early and then fall into the upper 20s. The good news here is the light rain/freezing rain will become more scattered overnight.

The bigger story will be the snow developing on Thursday along with the increasing winds. Snow will become heavy at times by late Thursday and continue into Christmas Day. Right now I have us in the 6-12 inch band for storm totals ending early Saturday. The track is still a bit up in the air but new info this afternoon has this storm taking a very unusual track due north out of the ozarks putting us in the heavy snow band. If the track shifts the heavy snow band along the Missouri River Valley could slide east or west. There will also be locally higher totals over a foot in some areas. Stay tuned as this continues to develop!