Action 3 News Weather Blog

Hello again…

To follow up our previous posts…I just want to update everyone on the latest. We are now under a winter storm warning from Thursday morning until Saturday morning. Overnight we will continue to see spotty rain and freezing rain as temps hang around 32 degrees early and then fall into the upper 20s. The good news here is the light rain/freezing rain will become more scattered overnight.

The bigger story will be the snow developing on Thursday along with the increasing winds. Snow will become heavy at times by late Thursday and continue into Christmas Day. Right now I have us in the 6-12 inch band for storm totals ending early Saturday. The track is still a bit up in the air but new info this afternoon has this storm taking a very unusual track due north out of the ozarks putting us in the heavy snow band. If the track shifts the heavy snow band along the Missouri River Valley could slide east or west. There will also be locally higher totals over a foot in some areas. Stay tuned as this continues to develop!

Good Afternoon! Just to follow up on CT’s comments from a while ago…

The National Weather Service has dropped Douglas, Sarpy and Pottawattamie Counties of the Omaha metro out of the Winter Weather Advisory. It still continues north and west of the metro.

Surface temperatures have remained at or above 32°F, which has helped to greatly limit how much icing we could’ve seen. Radar trends also indicate that the rain will continue to wind down this afternoon, so we may not see much more for the remainder of the afternoon.

This has been a complicated storm, nonetheless, to forecast since a change of a few degrees of our surface temperatures and temperatures aloft would’ve yielded a completely different outcome, including a full-blown ice storm.

Rain will gradually mix with sleet and freezing rain tonight before changing to all snow on Thursday. As temperatures drop travel will become more difficult late tonight into Thursday. Once the snow takes hold we will see periods of heavy snow with several inches possible. Some of the latest indications are that this storm will take a very unusual track out of the ozarks and come due north Christmas Eve into Christmas Day! This will allow for periods of heavy snow to continue into late Friday and would expand the heavy snow band east and south from Omaha to KC! A Winter Storm Watch continues for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day…as I was saying, at that time we will see periods of heavy snow and increasing winds with blowing and drifting snow. It now appears a foot of snow is not out of the question. I will have more updates and info later today.

Ryan

Hello All!

I wanted to quickly post an update before I leave the office this afternoon.  The National Weather Service has dropped Douglas, Sarpy and Pottawattamie Counties of the Omaha metro out of the Winter Weather Advisory.  It still continues north and west of the metro.

Surface temperatures have remained at or above 32°F, which has helped to greatly limit how much icing we could’ve seen.  Radar trends also indicate that the rain will begin to wind down within the next 1-2 hours, so we may not see much more for the remainder of the afternoon.

This has been a complicated storm, nonetheless, to forecast since a change of a few degrees of our surface temperatures and temperatures aloft would’ve yielded a completely different outcome, including a full-blown ice storm.

I’m still expecting a changover to snow after midnight and a prolonged period of snow, plus strong surface winds, Thursday and Christmas Day.  At this point, I don’t feel a need to alter my current snowfall forecast of 6″-9″ for the Omaha metro.

Stay tuned to Action 3 News for the continuing updates on this winter storm beginning at 5 pm with Chief Meteorologist Ryan McPike.

Good Morning, Everyone!

Well…the storm is here!  It’s been raining…however, with surface temperatures hovering at 32°F, the risk of freezing rain and the resulting icing remains high.  Temperatures may briefly rise just above freezing approaching the afternoon erasing any ice that we may accumulate this morning;  this would be the best-case scenario.  So far, the problem spots seem to be untreated neighborhood roads, parking lots and sidewalks.

In summary, here’s my forecast for today:

Looking at the computer model upper-air forecast profiles, the changover from our icy mixture to snow looks to occur between midnight and 6 am for the Omaha metro.  Snow will begin to pick up in intensity, along with colder northerly winds…approaching 20-40+ mph, which will create blowing snow conditions and limited visibilities.  Lower atmosphere temperatures will still harbor a mixture of freezing rain and sleet the farther east you go toward Des Moines and southward toward Kansas City:

On Friday (Christmas Day), we’ll likely experience blowing snow all across Nebraska and Iowa, although accumulations appear to wind down by evening:

After careful review of the total amount of moisture available for precipitation with this surface low pressure system, along with the track of the low and the duration of precipitation after the changeover to snow has occurred, I have modified my first-guess map that I showed on the midday show yesterday.  I’m now looking at a range of 6″-9″ for the total snow storm accumulation for the Omaha metro:

I personally feel that many that are entusiastic about this storm have more of an interest in the total snowfall potential, disregarding the other impacts that this severe winter storm is imposing.  If ice accumulation becomes problematic, due to the duration of the freezing rain and the surface temperatures at or below freezing…and the expected wind speeds to increase by Thursday, some power outages are not out of the question, assuming worst-case scenario.  We’re also looking at a dangerous combination of light to moderate snow combined with 20-40+ mph winds for Thursday and Friday which will also result in low visibilites below 1/4 mile at times.  No matter what this storm poses, as far as a health or safety threat, it is prudent for you to heed the advisories and warnings that you hear on Action 3 News for your benefit until weather conditions improve on Saturday.

I’ll try to post an update later this afternoon after the midday newscast.  Feel free to look me up “KMTV C.T. Thongklin” on Facebook to add me as a friend for additional updates and your forecast in your news feed.

Until then, stay safe and thanks for watching!

-C.T.